Monsoon 2026 ahead of schedule: Kerala onset around May 27, below-normal rain forecast

According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon could hit Kerala around May 27 — about five days ahead of the normal June 1 date. However, seasonal rainfall is forecast at 92% of the long-period average.

प्रिया पटेल 23 May 2026, 10:03 AM • 1 min read • 26 views

Monsoon 2026 ahead of schedule: Kerala onset around May 27, below-normal rain forecast — Awaiting the first monsoon showers (representative image).

New Delhi, May 22. With much of the country battling a severe heatwave, there is welcome news. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon may reach Kerala ahead of schedule this year.

An early Kerala onset

Per the IMD forecast, the monsoon could arrive in Kerala around May 27 (±4 days) — about five days earlier than the normal June 1 date. In the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the monsoon has already set in around May 20.

The rainfall outlook

The department expects total seasonal rainfall to be about 92% of the long-period average (LPA) — somewhat below normal, but not in the deficient category. Climate models indicate El Niño conditions could emerge by July, which may affect rainfall distribution across the country.

The northward march

Advancing from Kerala, the monsoon is likely to reach Mumbai around June 11 and Delhi by the last week of June. For now, heatwave warnings are in force for Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan. The forecast is crucial for farmers and water-management agencies, as much of the country's agriculture depends on these rains.

Source: India Meteorological Department

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