SBI Research projects Q4 FY26 GDP growth at 7.2%; full-year FY26 at 7.5%

Mumbai, May 11. A report released by SBI Research on Monday projects India's real GDP to grow at about 7.2% in Q4 FY26 (January-March 2026).

Nominal growth at 12.2%

Nominal Q4 GDP growth is pegged near 12.2%, higher than inflation-adjusted growth because price pressure on the demand side remains. According to SBI Research's Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the high nominal growth is supportive for tax collections.

Full-year and next-year outlook

Real GDP growth for the full FY26 is projected at 7.5% and for FY27 at 6.6%. This is below the RBI's 6.9% projection for FY27.

Sectoral analysis

The report sees services growing 8.5%, manufacturing 7.1%, and agriculture 3.8% in Q4. Banking credit growth has held above 15%, signalling strong underlying demand.

Official numbers on May 29

The National Statistical Office (NSO) will release official Q4 and FY26 GDP data on May 29, 2026. This will be critical input for the RBI's next monetary policy meeting.

World Bank and IMF also bullish

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have placed India as the world's fastest-growing major economy for this year. The IMF's estimate for China stands at 4.7% and the US at 2.1%.